Model Predictions
| Model | Dallas Mavericks | San Antonio Spurs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 5.8% | 94.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 7.9% | 92.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 5.3% | 94.7% | +15.8 | ✓ (2.8 off) |
| Pythagorean | 28.5% | 71.5% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 21.9% | 78.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 24.9% | 75.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 24.8% | 75.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 27.8% | 72.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: San Antonio Spurs +13 (138-125). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Christie * | 26 | 6-11 | 3-7 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 13 | - |
| Cooper Flagg * | 26 | 5-12 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 8 | - |
| Naji Marshall * | 25 | 1-8 | 0-2 | 4-4 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 8 | - |
| Caleb Martin * | 24 | 5-10 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 7 | - |
| Daniel Gafford * | 18 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 10 | - |
| Marvin Bagley III | 24 | 6-14 | 1-1 | 3-7 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 16 | 21 | - |
| Brandon Williams | 23 | 8-12 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 13 | - |
| P.J. Washington | 22 | 4-10 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 9 | - |
| Klay Thompson | 19 | 6-14 | 4-10 | 3-3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 8 | - |
| Tyus Jones | 16 | 2-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | - |
| AJ Johnson | 7 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | - |
| Dwight Powell | 4 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | - |
San Antonio Spurs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephon Castle * | 31 | 15-19 | 3-5 | 7-10 | 12 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 40 | 43 | - |
| Devin Vassell * | 29 | 7-15 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 12 | - |
| De'Aaron Fox * | 26 | 7-13 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 6 | - |
| Victor Wembanyama * | 26 | 6-14 | 1-6 | 3-4 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 17 | - |
| Julian Champagnie * | 15 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 | - |
| Dylan Harper | 22 | 5-8 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 13 | - |
| Harrison Barnes | 22 | 3-6 | 3-5 | 0-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 5 | - |
| Carter Bryant | 17 | 4-11 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 8 | - |
| Keldon Johnson | 16 | 3-5 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 3 | - |
| Luke Kornet | 16 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 10 | - |
| Kelly Olynyk | 4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Bismack Biyombo | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Jordan McLaughlin | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Jeremy Sochan | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter