Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Boston Celtics | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 22.8% | 77.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 30.9% | 69.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 22.6% | 77.4% | +6.8 | ✓ (4.8 off) |
| Pythagorean | 41.2% | 58.8% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 25.9% | 74.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 30.0% | 70.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 30.0% | 70.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 32.2% | 67.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Boston Celtics +2 (98-96). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Wiggins * | 38 | 10-16 | 5-7 | 1-2 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 26 | 17 | - |
| Norman Powell * | 34 | 9-15 | 3-7 | 3-3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 24 | 17 | - |
| Bam Adebayo * | 34 | 5-13 | 2-6 | 4-6 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 12 | - |
| Davion Mitchell * | 29 | 5-11 | 2-6 | 1-2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 9 | - |
| Pelle Larsson * | 11 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | - |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 31 | 4-9 | 1-3 | 2-3 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 14 | - |
| Simone Fontecchio | 19 | 0-5 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Dru Smith | 18 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Kel'el Ware | 9 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Myron Gardner | 6 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Nikola Jović | 6 | 0-5 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -3 | - |
Boston Celtics
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick White * | 41 | 6-20 | 4-12 | 5-5 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 21 | 14 | - |
| Sam Hauser * | 35 | 1-7 | 0-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Jaylen Brown * | 33 | 11-25 | 1-7 | 6-10 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 29 | 7 | - |
| Neemias Queta * | 21 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 10 | - |
| Luka Garza * | 10 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | - |
| Payton Pritchard | 35 | 8-15 | 4-6 | 4-4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 10 | - |
| Nikola Vučević | 27 | 4-8 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 19 | - |
| Baylor Scheierman | 18 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 12 | - |
| Hugo González | 16 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | - |
* = starter