Model Predictions
| Model | San Antonio Spurs | Dallas Mavericks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 89.1% | 10.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 86.8% | 13.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 90.2% | 9.8% | -12.2 | ✓ (0.2 off) |
| Pythagorean | 65.5% | 34.5% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 72.1% | 27.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 69.1% | 30.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 69.2% | 30.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 60.1% | 39.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Dallas Mavericks -12 (123-135). Predictions use season-end ratings.
San Antonio Spurs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harrison Barnes * | 34 | 5-7 | 5-7 | 4-4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 14 | - |
| Victor Wembanyama * | 34 | 9-14 | 5-9 | 6-8 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 29 | 34 | - |
| De'Aaron Fox * | 31 | 7-16 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 9 | - |
| Devin Vassell * | 30 | 5-12 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 10 | - |
| Julian Champagnie * | 27 | 4-12 | 2-8 | 4-4 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 10 | - |
| Stephon Castle | 21 | 8-13 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 18 | - |
| Keldon Johnson | 19 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 14 | - |
| Dylan Harper | 19 | 3-7 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 11 | - |
| Carter Bryant | 17 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Jordan McLaughlin | 3 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - |
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Flagg * | 38 | 14-27 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 32 | 17 | - |
| Naji Marshall * | 38 | 12-21 | 4-7 | 4-4 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 32 | 19 | - |
| Max Christie * | 37 | 7-15 | 2-8 | 4-4 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 12 | - |
| Daniel Gafford * | 33 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 6-8 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 16 | 27 | - |
| Caleb Martin * | 31 | 3-4 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 8 | - |
| Klay Thompson | 20 | 2-8 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | - |
| Ryan Nembhard | 17 | 2-9 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | - |
| Moussa Cisse | 11 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - |
| Miles Kelly | 8 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | - |
| Dwight Powell | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter