Model Predictions
| Model | Atlanta Hawks | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 53.1% | 46.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 43.7% | 56.3% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 40.0% | 60.0% | +2.2 | ✗ (14.2 off) |
| Pythagorean | 45.4% | 54.6% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 38.7% | 61.3% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 40.3% | 59.7% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 40.3% | 59.7% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 38.3% | 61.7% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Miami Heat -12 (115-127). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Atlanta Hawks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Johnson * | 36 | 12-20 | 3-7 | 2-4 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 29 | 29 | - |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker * | 31 | 8-21 | 3-12 | 0-0 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 11 | - |
| Zaccharie Risacher * | 22 | 3-7 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 9 | - |
| Dyson Daniels * | 21 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | - |
| Christian Koloko * | 11 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | - |
| Corey Kispert | 27 | 5-13 | 2-7 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 8 | - |
| CJ McCollum | 26 | 10-18 | 6-9 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 26 | 12 | - |
| Luke Kennard | 23 | 4-6 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 13 | - |
| Mouhamed Gueye | 21 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 13 | - |
| Asa Newell | 16 | 3-4 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 6 | - |
| Keaton Wallace | 1 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pelle Larsson * | 35 | 7-12 | 0-3 | 4-4 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 12 | - |
| Simone Fontecchio * | 33 | 7-15 | 2-8 | 2-2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 12 | - |
| Bam Adebayo * | 30 | 4-16 | 0-3 | 8-8 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 13 | - |
| Davion Mitchell * | 28 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 9 | - |
| Myron Gardner * | 21 | 5-8 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 14 | - |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 27 | 9-17 | 1-3 | 2-3 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 13 | - |
| Dru Smith | 18 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | - |
| Kel'el Ware | 17 | 4-10 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 7 | - |
| Kasparas Jakučionis | 16 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 7 | - |
| Nikola Jović | 7 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | - |
| Keshad Johnson | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Jahmir Young | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - |
* = starter