Model Predictions
| Model | Orlando Magic | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 53.0% | 47.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 48.8% | 51.2% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 38.2% | 61.8% | +2.6 | ✗ (11.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 44.5% | 55.5% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 45.5% | 54.5% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 47.1% | 52.9% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 47.1% | 52.9% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 43.1% | 56.9% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Miami Heat -9 (124-133). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Orlando Magic
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paolo Banchero * | 38 | 11-23 | 1-3 | 8-10 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 31 | 25 | - |
| Anthony Black * | 37 | 11-19 | 4-7 | 0-1 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 26 | 25 | - |
| Desmond Bane * | 36 | 10-16 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 14 | - |
| Jalen Suggs * | 29 | 6-15 | 1-7 | 3-4 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 9 | - |
| Wendell Carter Jr. * | 27 | 4-8 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 7 | - |
| Tristan da Silva | 20 | 5-9 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 11 | - |
| Tyus Jones | 19 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 11 | - |
| Jonathan Isaac | 16 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 13 | - |
| Noah Penda | 7 | 1-6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | - |
| Moritz Wagner | 4 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - |
| Jase Richardson | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo * | 38 | 7-14 | 4-7 | 3-4 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 25 | - |
| Andrew Wiggins * | 31 | 6-11 | 1-3 | 3-3 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 13 | - |
| Norman Powell * | 28 | 8-17 | 2-7 | 4-4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 6 | - |
| Pelle Larsson * | 27 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 12 | - |
| Kasparas Jakučionis * | 19 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 27 | 6-10 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 7 | - |
| Dru Smith | 21 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 6-6 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 17 | - |
| Simone Fontecchio | 19 | 7-11 | 6-9 | 3-4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 20 | - |
| Nikola Jović | 18 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | - |
| Kel'el Ware | 6 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | - |
* = starter