Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Phoenix Suns | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 53.7% | 46.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 37.8% | 62.2% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 44.2% | 55.8% | +1.3 | ✗ (10.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 49.0% | 51.0% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 41.5% | 58.5% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 42.5% | 57.5% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 42.6% | 57.4% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 41.0% | 59.0% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Phoenix Suns -9 (102-111). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pelle Larsson * | 35 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 7 | - |
| Bam Adebayo * | 32 | 6-16 | 2-6 | 8-8 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 16 | - |
| Norman Powell * | 31 | 5-21 | 2-10 | 4-4 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 5 | - |
| Andrew Wiggins * | 23 | 5-12 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 11 | - |
| Kasparas Jakučionis * | 22 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 14 | - |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 35 | 8-11 | 1-3 | 3-4 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 19 | - |
| Dru Smith | 22 | 5-8 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 5 | - |
| Nikola Jović | 17 | 4-10 | 2-5 | 2-4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 9 | - |
| Simone Fontecchio | 15 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | - |
| Myron Gardner | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | - |
Phoenix Suns
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dillon Brooks * | 36 | 11-23 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 26 | 13 | - |
| Grayson Allen * | 34 | 4-18 | 1-11 | 9-10 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 8 | - |
| Royce O'Neale * | 31 | 2-10 | 0-7 | 4-4 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 8 | - |
| Collin Gillespie * | 30 | 4-12 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 1 | - |
| Mark Williams * | 24 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 14 | - |
| Jordan Goodwin | 21 | 1-7 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Oso Ighodaro | 16 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 11 | - |
| Isaiah Livers | 15 | 4-4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 13 | - |
| Jamaree Bouyea | 13 | 2-6 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -1 | - |
| Ryan Dunn | 7 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | - |
| Khaman Maluach | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Rasheer Fleming | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Nigel Hayes-Davis | 2 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter