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2026-01-21

Model Predictions

Model Toronto Raptors Golden State Warriors Spread Result
Elo 66.1% 33.9% - ✓
Bradley-Terry 58.2% 41.8% - ✓
Margin 56.0% 44.0% -1.3 ✓ (16.7 off)
Pythagorean 51.6% 48.4% - ✓
Efficiency 45.6% 54.4% - ✗
Adjusted Efficiency 41.6% 58.4% - ✗
Log Adjusted 41.5% 58.5% - ✗
Points Off/Def 40.4% 59.6% - ✗

Actual: Golden State Warriors -18 (127-145). Predictions use season-end ratings.

Toronto Raptors

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
Scottie Barnes * 38 12-18 0-1 2-2 7 11 0 0 4 26 22 -
Brandon Ingram * 36 8-17 4-6 2-2 4 5 1 1 1 22 15 -
Immanuel Quickley * 33 11-13 7-8 11-11 2 10 2 0 3 40 38 -
Jamal Shead * 30 4-6 2-2 0-0 1 8 1 0 2 10 12 -
Gradey Dick * 23 3-6 2-5 2-2 3 0 1 0 1 10 7 -
Sandro Mamukelashvili 25 5-8 4-4 0-0 12 4 2 1 1 14 24 -
Jamison Battle 15 3-6 2-4 1-1 2 3 0 1 0 9 9 -
Ochai Agbaji 11 2-6 0-3 0-0 0 0 0 0 3 4 -5 -
Jonathan Mogbo 10 1-3 0-0 0-0 5 0 0 0 0 2 4 -
A.J. Lawson 10 2-3 0-1 2-2 1 0 0 0 0 6 4 -
Alijah Martin 1 0-0 0-0 2-2 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 -
Garrett Temple 1 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 -

Golden State Warriors

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
Stephen Curry * 24 6-16 2-7 2-3 3 3 1 0 1 16 6 -
Draymond Green * 22 3-9 0-4 0-0 6 5 0 0 2 6 6 -
Brandin Podziemski * 21 4-10 1-7 2-5 3 2 1 1 2 11 6 -
Quinten Post * 18 5-9 2-3 0-0 7 0 0 0 0 12 10 -
Moses Moody * 17 5-7 0-2 0-1 5 0 0 0 0 10 8 -
Will Richard 23 0-4 0-3 0-0 0 1 1 0 1 0 -3 -
Jonathan Kuminga 21 7-10 1-3 5-8 5 2 1 0 2 20 16 -
De'Anthony Melton 20 2-6 0-3 2-2 3 5 1 0 5 6 4 -
Buddy Hield 19 7-8 6-6 5-5 1 2 1 0 0 25 21 -
Gui Santos 14 1-2 1-2 0-0 0 2 0 0 1 3 2 -
Trayce Jackson-Davis 11 0-1 0-0 0-0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 -
Gary Payton II 11 3-4 2-2 1-2 0 0 1 0 2 9 4 -
Pat Spencer 9 4-4 1-1 0-0 2 5 0 0 1 9 11 -
LJ Cryer 1 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -
Malevy Leons 1 0-1 0-0 0-0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 -

* = starter