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2026-01-21

Model Predictions

Model San Antonio Spurs Houston Rockets Spread Result
Elo 62.8% 37.2% -
Bradley-Terry 63.6% 36.4% -
Margin 60.8% 39.2% -2.4 (7.4 off)
Pythagorean 50.5% 49.5% -
Efficiency 47.7% 52.3% -
Adjusted Efficiency 48.4% 51.6% -
Log Adjusted 48.4% 51.6% -
Points Off/Def 44.1% 55.9% -

Actual: Houston Rockets +5 (111-106). Predictions use season-end ratings.

San Antonio Spurs

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
Stephon Castle * 34 5-19 2-8 1-1 7 8 1 1 3 13 8 -
Julian Champagnie * 34 8-17 8-16 3-3 8 2 2 0 0 27 22 -
De'Aaron Fox * 32 6-15 2-6 0-0 3 5 1 0 3 14 5 -
Victor Wembanyama * 29 5-21 0-7 4-4 10 2 0 0 1 14 4 -
Harrison Barnes * 24 2-6 2-5 0-0 2 1 1 1 1 6 4 -
Keldon Johnson 27 5-9 0-3 2-2 6 0 2 0 0 12 11 -
Luke Kornet 23 4-5 0-0 0-0 6 1 0 2 0 8 12 -
Dylan Harper 22 4-9 0-3 0-0 3 5 0 1 1 8 7 -
Carter Bryant 10 2-4 0-2 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 -

Houston Rockets

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
Kevin Durant * 39 7-12 2-4 2-2 4 7 1 1 4 18 15 -
Amen Thompson * 39 6-14 0-2 4-5 10 6 1 2 3 16 18 -
Jabari Smith Jr. * 35 7-13 2-5 1-3 4 1 0 1 0 17 10 -
Alperen Sengun * 33 7-13 1-3 5-5 13 9 0 2 4 20 27 -
Josh Okogie * 16 2-2 1-1 0-3 1 0 1 0 0 5 5 -
Reed Sheppard 29 8-17 4-10 1-2 2 4 1 1 0 21 12 -
Tari Eason 19 3-6 0-0 0-0 6 1 1 1 3 6 6 -
Dorian Finney-Smith 14 1-3 0-2 0-0 1 1 0 0 0 2 1 -
Clint Capela 12 2-3 0-0 2-2 2 0 0 1 0 6 6 -

* = starter