Model Predictions
| Model | San Antonio Spurs | Houston Rockets | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 62.8% | 37.2% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 63.6% | 36.4% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 60.8% | 39.2% | -2.4 | ✗ (7.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 50.5% | 49.5% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 47.7% | 52.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 48.4% | 51.6% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 48.4% | 51.6% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 44.1% | 55.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Houston Rockets +5 (111-106). Predictions use season-end ratings.
San Antonio Spurs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephon Castle * | 34 | 5-19 | 2-8 | 1-1 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 8 | - |
| Julian Champagnie * | 34 | 8-17 | 8-16 | 3-3 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 22 | - |
| De'Aaron Fox * | 32 | 6-15 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 5 | - |
| Victor Wembanyama * | 29 | 5-21 | 0-7 | 4-4 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 4 | - |
| Harrison Barnes * | 24 | 2-6 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 | - |
| Keldon Johnson | 27 | 5-9 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 11 | - |
| Luke Kornet | 23 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 12 | - |
| Dylan Harper | 22 | 4-9 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 7 | - |
| Carter Bryant | 10 | 2-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | - |
Houston Rockets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Durant * | 39 | 7-12 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 15 | - |
| Amen Thompson * | 39 | 6-14 | 0-2 | 4-5 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 18 | - |
| Jabari Smith Jr. * | 35 | 7-13 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 10 | - |
| Alperen Sengun * | 33 | 7-13 | 1-3 | 5-5 | 13 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 27 | - |
| Josh Okogie * | 16 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | - |
| Reed Sheppard | 29 | 8-17 | 4-10 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 12 | - |
| Tari Eason | 19 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 6 | - |
| Dorian Finney-Smith | 14 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Clint Capela | 12 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6 | - |
* = starter