Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Golden State Warriors | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 59.7% | 40.3% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 50.0% | 50.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 52.6% | 47.4% | -0.6 | ✗ (23.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 51.1% | 48.9% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 43.6% | 56.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 43.3% | 56.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 43.3% | 56.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 41.7% | 58.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Golden State Warriors +23 (135-112). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norman Powell * | 30 | 7-16 | 2-7 | 5-6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 8 | - |
| Pelle Larsson * | 27 | 3-7 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 10 | - |
| Andrew Wiggins * | 26 | 6-14 | 2-7 | 4-4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 7 | - |
| Davion Mitchell * | 25 | 1-6 | 1-4 | 4-4 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 12 | - |
| Bam Adebayo * | 25 | 1-13 | 0-5 | 2-2 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | - |
| Simone Fontecchio | 26 | 5-11 | 2-7 | 1-2 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 13 | - |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 25 | 4-12 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 9 | - |
| Kel'el Ware | 18 | 7-10 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 10 | - |
| Kasparas Jakučionis | 13 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | - |
| Dru Smith | 8 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 | - |
| Nikola Jović | 3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Myron Gardner | 3 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | - |
| Keshad Johnson | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Golden State Warriors
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moses Moody * | 29 | 4-9 | 3-6 | 2-3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 13 | - |
| Stephen Curry * | 27 | 6-13 | 5-10 | 2-2 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 17 | - |
| Will Richard * | 26 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 13 | - |
| Quinten Post * | 21 | 5-7 | 4-5 | 1-2 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 19 | - |
| Jimmy Butler III * | 20 | 6-11 | 0-1 | 5-5 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 13 | - |
| Brandin Podziemski | 29 | 9-19 | 3-7 | 3-3 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 14 | - |
| Buddy Hield | 23 | 6-9 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 14 | - |
| Al Horford | 19 | 4-9 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 12 | - |
| Gary Payton II | 16 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | - |
| Pat Spencer | 13 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Trayce Jackson-Davis | 7 | 3-3 | 1-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 | - |
| Malevy Leons | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - |
| LJ Cryer | 2 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | - |
* = starter