Model Predictions
| Model | Oklahoma City Thunder | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 84.0% | 16.0% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 77.5% | 22.5% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 80.7% | 19.3% | -7.9 | ✗ (9.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 55.8% | 44.2% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 77.5% | 22.5% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 73.8% | 26.2% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 73.8% | 26.2% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 63.2% | 36.8% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Miami Heat +2 (122-120). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Oklahoma City Thunder
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander * | 36 | 12-19 | 2-3 | 13-13 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 39 | 26 | - |
| Chet Holmgren * | 30 | 6-12 | 0-2 | 2-3 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 14 | 18 | - |
| Cason Wallace * | 22 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 12 | - |
| Luguentz Dort * | 21 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Jalen Williams * | 13 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 8 | - |
| Aaron Wiggins | 27 | 7-10 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 15 | - |
| Ajay Mitchell | 27 | 6-13 | 1-6 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 4 | - |
| Alex Caruso | 21 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 2-4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 8 | - |
| Isaiah Joe | 19 | 2-3 | 2-3 | 2-4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 9 | - |
| Jaylin Williams | 17 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | - |
| Kenrich Williams | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norman Powell * | 35 | 5-15 | 5-12 | 4-7 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 14 | - |
| Andrew Wiggins * | 32 | 6-15 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 11 | - |
| Bam Adebayo * | 32 | 9-22 | 6-10 | 6-6 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 30 | 24 | - |
| Pelle Larsson * | 29 | 7-15 | 0-3 | 2-4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 6 | - |
| Kasparas Jakučionis * | 26 | 1-7 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | - |
| Dru Smith | 20 | 1-8 | 0-2 | 3-4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | - |
| Simone Fontecchio | 17 | 4-7 | 2-4 | 3-3 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 13 | - |
| Kel'el Ware | 16 | 3-11 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 7 | - |
| Nikola Jović | 15 | 1-7 | 0-4 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | - |
| Myron Gardner | 14 | 4-4 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 14 | - |
* = starter