Model Predictions
| Model | Boston Celtics | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 62.9% | 37.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 55.7% | 44.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 64.1% | 35.9% | -3.2 | ✓ (1.8 off) |
| Pythagorean | 52.8% | 47.2% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 68.1% | 31.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 64.0% | 36.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 64.0% | 36.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 54.9% | 45.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat -5 (114-119). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Boston Celtics
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick White * | 36 | 1-7 | 0-3 | 6-6 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 12 | - |
| Jaylen Brown * | 30 | 9-24 | 2-7 | 7-7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 27 | 5 | - |
| Sam Hauser * | 29 | 6-11 | 3-8 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 13 | - |
| Payton Pritchard * | 24 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 | - |
| Neemias Queta * | 19 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 13 | - |
| Anfernee Simons | 34 | 13-28 | 7-16 | 6-6 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 39 | 18 | - |
| Luka Garza | 27 | 4-8 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 8 | - |
| Jordan Walsh | 19 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 12 | - |
| Hugo González | 13 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | - |
| Baylor Scheierman | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Wiggins * | 34 | 5-10 | 3-6 | 3-3 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 17 | - |
| Bam Adebayo * | 33 | 8-19 | 3-7 | 3-4 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 11 | - |
| Norman Powell * | 31 | 10-15 | 1-3 | 5-5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 17 | - |
| Tyler Herro * | 30 | 9-15 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 15 | - |
| Pelle Larsson * | 29 | 2-6 | 0-3 | 3-4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 | - |
| Kasparas Jakučionis | 27 | 3-4 | 3-4 | 3-4 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 18 | - |
| Simone Fontecchio | 16 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 3-3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | - |
| Nikola Jović | 15 | 1-6 | 0-4 | 1-4 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | - |
| Dru Smith | 11 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Kel'el Ware | 8 | 1-5 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | - |
* = starter