Model Predictions
| Model | Denver Nuggets | Dallas Mavericks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 84.9% | 15.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 75.4% | 24.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 81.4% | 18.6% | -8.1 | ✓ (0.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 61.9% | 38.1% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 66.9% | 33.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 63.0% | 37.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 63.1% | 36.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 55.7% | 44.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Dallas Mavericks -9 (109-118). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Denver Nuggets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Murray * | 38 | 13-24 | 2-6 | 5-5 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 33 | 13 | - |
| Spencer Jones * | 32 | 3-5 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 11 | - |
| Peyton Watson * | 30 | 6-12 | 2-5 | 4-5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 11 | - |
| Aaron Gordon * | 29 | 8-12 | 3-5 | 3-5 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 20 | - |
| Jalen Pickett * | 27 | 3-9 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 9 | - |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | 35 | 4-12 | 4-10 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 9 | - |
| Bruce Brown | 23 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 7 | - |
| Zeke Nnaji | 17 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | - |
| DaRon Holmes II | 4 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | - |
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naji Marshall * | 38 | 9-16 | 0-3 | 6-8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 24 | 13 | - |
| P.J. Washington * | 30 | 4-13 | 0-3 | 4-7 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 6 | - |
| Jaden Hardy * | 28 | 3-11 | 1-6 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3 | - |
| Daniel Gafford * | 17 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 14 | - |
| Cooper Flagg * | 14 | 3-9 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 | - |
| Brandon Williams | 25 | 6-13 | 0-3 | 8-12 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 16 | - |
| Klay Thompson | 23 | 3-8 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | - |
| Caleb Martin | 23 | 7-9 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 16 | - |
| Dwight Powell | 18 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 9 | - |
| Ryan Nembhard | 15 | 2-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 | - |
| Miles Kelly | 4 | 0-4 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | - |
* = starter