Model Predictions
| Model | Phoenix Suns | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 30.2% | 69.8% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 48.1% | 51.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 39.7% | 60.3% | +2.3 | ✓ (3.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 45.0% | 55.0% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 52.5% | 47.5% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 51.5% | 48.5% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 51.4% | 48.6% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 45.5% | 54.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +6 (127-121). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Phoenix Suns
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Booker * | 39 | 6-19 | 1-5 | 11-11 | 9 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 24 | 20 | - |
| Dillon Brooks * | 35 | 11-24 | 1-10 | 2-3 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 25 | 4 | - |
| Royce O'Neale * | 32 | 3-10 | 2-8 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 6 | - |
| Mark Williams * | 31 | 8-13 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 20 | - |
| Collin Gillespie * | 24 | 4-8 | 3-7 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 13 | - |
| Grayson Allen | 26 | 9-19 | 6-14 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 11 | - |
| Jordan Goodwin | 17 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | - |
| Ryan Dunn | 16 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | - |
| Oso Ighodaro | 16 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | - |
| Nick Richards | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Herro * | 38 | 8-18 | 2-8 | 5-6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 7 | - |
| Norman Powell * | 32 | 10-18 | 4-10 | 3-4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 27 | 17 | - |
| Bam Adebayo * | 31 | 11-15 | 4-6 | 3-4 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 29 | 29 | - |
| Andrew Wiggins * | 28 | 2-11 | 0-5 | 4-4 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 4 | - |
| Davion Mitchell * | 18 | 4-6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 12 | - |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 31 | 7-16 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 13 | - |
| Pelle Larsson | 27 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | - |
| Kel'el Ware | 16 | 4-6 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 11 | - |
| Dru Smith | 8 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Nikola Jović | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | - |
* = starter