Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Oklahoma City Thunder | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 8.7% | 91.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 14.1% | 85.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 11.1% | 88.9% | +11.4 | ✓ (0.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 38.2% | 61.8% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 16.5% | 83.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 20.2% | 79.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 20.2% | 79.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 25.3% | 74.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Oklahoma City Thunder +12 (124-112). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Wiggins * | 36 | 8-16 | 7-10 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 12 | - |
| Davion Mitchell * | 31 | 5-7 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 18 | - |
| Bam Adebayo * | 31 | 3-10 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 14 | - |
| Pelle Larsson * | 27 | 6-11 | 1-4 | 3-4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 11 | - |
| Tyler Herro * | 27 | 8-15 | 1-3 | 2-3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 6 | - |
| Nikola Jović | 25 | 5-7 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 13 | - |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 20 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 1 | - |
| Dru Smith | 17 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 12 | - |
| Kel'el Ware | 16 | 4-8 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 1 | - |
| Simone Fontecchio | 1 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | - |
| Myron Gardner | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Keshad Johnson | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Kasparas Jakučionis | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
Oklahoma City Thunder
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander * | 31 | 10-19 | 2-6 | 7-9 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 29 | 22 | - |
| Chet Holmgren * | 31 | 7-13 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 19 | - |
| Jalen Williams * | 29 | 9-13 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 12 | - |
| Cason Wallace * | 25 | 1-6 | 0-3 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | - |
| Luguentz Dort * | 19 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | - |
| Ajay Mitchell | 26 | 8-15 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 5 | - |
| Aaron Wiggins | 18 | 4-10 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 7 | - |
| Isaiah Joe | 18 | 3-5 | 2-4 | 3-5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 11 | - |
| Alex Caruso | 14 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 5 | - |
| Jaylin Williams | 14 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 6-6 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 13 | - |
| Kenrich Williams | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | - |
| Branden Carlson | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
* = starter