Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Indiana Pacers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 74.0% | 26.0% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 71.3% | 28.7% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 80.6% | 19.4% | -7.8 | ✗ (31.8 off) |
| Pythagorean | 64.2% | 35.8% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 75.7% | 24.3% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 71.1% | 28.9% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 71.1% | 28.9% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 62.2% | 37.8% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Indiana Pacers +24 (123-99). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Herro * | 32 | 8-19 | 1-8 | 4-4 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 15 | - |
| Bam Adebayo * | 24 | 5-12 | 0-2 | 3-3 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 10 | - |
| Norman Powell * | 22 | 2-12 | 1-7 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 | -5 | - |
| Davion Mitchell * | 19 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | - |
| Andrew Wiggins * | 19 | 5-8 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 10 | - |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 25 | 6-12 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 11 | - |
| Kel'el Ware | 17 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Pelle Larsson | 16 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 4-6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | - |
| Nikola Jović | 16 | 1-6 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -2 | - |
| Myron Gardner | 12 | 1-6 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | - |
| Dru Smith | 11 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 3-3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 11 | - |
| Kasparas Jakučionis | 8 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | - |
| Simone Fontecchio | 7 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | - |
| Keshad Johnson | 6 | 3-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | - |
Indiana Pacers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Nembhard * | 29 | 10-16 | 4-7 | 5-6 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 29 | 30 | - |
| Aaron Nesmith * | 27 | 4-12 | 1-5 | 3-4 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 10 | - |
| Pascal Siakam * | 26 | 4-15 | 0-3 | 3-4 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 5 | - |
| Quenton Jackson * | 22 | 2-6 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 1 | - |
| Johnny Furphy * | 20 | 4-6 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 12 | - |
| Jarace Walker | 29 | 4-8 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 22 | - |
| Ben Sheppard | 20 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | - |
| Jay Huff | 18 | 4-9 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 5 | - |
| T.J. McConnell | 16 | 5-10 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 10 | - |
| Micah Potter | 15 | 5-7 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 9 | - |
| Kam Jones | 4 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | - |
| Tony Bradley | 4 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | - |
| Ethan Thompson | 4 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
* = starter