Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Minnesota Timberwolves | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 17.0% | 83.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 32.4% | 67.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 36.3% | 63.7% | +3.1 | ✓ (24.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 46.2% | 53.8% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 38.3% | 61.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 40.5% | 59.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 40.5% | 59.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 39.0% | 61.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Minnesota Timberwolves +28 (122-94). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norman Powell * | 30 | 9-17 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 8 | - |
| Kel'el Ware * | 28 | 3-10 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 10 | - |
| Bam Adebayo * | 28 | 3-11 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 9 | - |
| Davion Mitchell * | 27 | 2-11 | 0-4 | 0-1 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | - |
| Andrew Wiggins * | 25 | 3-10 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 8 | - |
| Tyler Herro | 28 | 7-15 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 12 | - |
| Nikola Jović | 26 | 2-8 | 1-4 | 4-6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 8 | - |
| Pelle Larsson | 19 | 3-9 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | -1 | - |
| Dru Smith | 5 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | - |
| Simone Fontecchio | 4 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Myron Gardner | 4 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | - |
| Keshad Johnson | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Kasparas Jakučionis | 4 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | - |
Minnesota Timberwolves
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaden McDaniels * | 33 | 7-15 | 1-4 | 4-5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 11 | - |
| Rudy Gobert * | 32 | 5-5 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 24 | - |
| Donte DiVincenzo * | 30 | 4-9 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 11 | - |
| Anthony Edwards * | 29 | 8-18 | 5-8 | 5-6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 26 | 16 | - |
| Julius Randle * | 26 | 6-12 | 1-2 | 2-3 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 18 | - |
| Naz Reid | 24 | 6-12 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 12 | - |
| Mike Conley | 15 | 1-4 | 0-3 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | - |
| Bones Hyland | 12 | 2-8 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | - |
| Jaylen Clark | 11 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | - |
| Leonard Miller | 4 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | - |
| Rob Dillingham | 4 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Joe Ingles | 4 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - |
| Johnny Juzang | 4 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | - |
| Joan Beringer | 4 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | - |
* = starter