Model Predictions
| Model | New Orleans Pelicans | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 24.3% | 75.7% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 22.3% | 77.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 18.8% | 81.2% | +8.0 | ✓ (11.0 off) |
| Pythagorean | 36.5% | 63.5% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 22.7% | 77.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 26.1% | 73.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 26.0% | 74.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 28.7% | 71.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +19 (125-106). Predictions use season-end ratings.
New Orleans Pelicans
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Murphy III * | 38 | 10-19 | 7-15 | 0-0 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 27 | 21 | - |
| Derik Queen * | 29 | 5-11 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 9 | - |
| Zion Williamson * | 26 | 6-10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 7 | - |
| Jeremiah Fears * | 26 | 8-13 | 4-6 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 11 | - |
| Karlo Matković * | 24 | 2-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | - |
| Jordan Poole | 24 | 3-11 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 6 | - |
| Jose Alvarado | 19 | 2-7 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 6 | - |
| Yves Missi | 17 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 | - |
| Bryce McGowens | 15 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | - |
| Micah Peavy | 13 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | - |
| Trey Alexander | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Jordan Hawkins | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davion Mitchell * | 29 | 3-10 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 8 | - |
| Bam Adebayo * | 28 | 5-14 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 11 | - |
| Andrew Wiggins * | 28 | 4-9 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 8 | - |
| Norman Powell * | 28 | 11-15 | 9-12 | 3-4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 34 | 27 | - |
| Kel'el Ware * | 24 | 7-13 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 16 | - |
| Nikola Jović | 25 | 7-16 | 2-8 | 3-4 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 15 | - |
| Pelle Larsson | 25 | 7-15 | 1-5 | 1-3 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 11 | - |
| Dru Smith | 18 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | - |
| Kasparas Jakučionis | 16 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | - |
| Myron Gardner | 12 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | - |
| Simone Fontecchio | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter