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2026-01-04

Model Predictions

Model Houston Rockets Dallas Mavericks Spread Result
Elo 77.5% 22.5% -
Bradley-Terry 73.9% 26.1% -
Margin 81.1% 18.9% -8.0 (14.0 off)
Pythagorean 62.4% 37.6% -
Efficiency 71.6% 28.4% -
Adjusted Efficiency 68.0% 32.0% -
Log Adjusted 68.0% 32.0% -
Points Off/Def 59.3% 40.7% -

Actual: Dallas Mavericks +6 (110-104). Predictions use season-end ratings.

Houston Rockets

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
Amen Thompson * 39 8-18 0-3 4-4 12 4 3 1 2 20 20 -
Kevin Durant * 37 14-26 2-7 4-5 5 7 0 3 2 34 21 -
Jabari Smith Jr. * 36 2-13 1-7 2-2 9 3 0 0 0 7 6 -
Tari Eason * 34 7-17 3-6 2-2 10 2 2 0 2 19 14 -
Alperen Sengun * 1 0-0 0-0 0-0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 -
Clint Capela 26 4-8 0-0 0-2 8 2 5 2 1 8 16 -
Reed Sheppard 22 3-10 2-6 0-0 0 5 0 0 1 8 2 -
Dorian Finney-Smith 16 1-3 1-3 0-0 5 0 0 0 1 3 4 -
Aaron Holiday 14 0-6 0-5 0-0 0 1 3 1 0 0 -1 -
Jae'Sean Tate 5 1-2 1-2 0-0 1 0 0 0 0 3 2 -
Josh Okogie 5 1-3 0-2 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 2 -1 -

Dallas Mavericks

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
Anthony Davis * 39 9-15 0-2 8-9 12 3 0 5 5 26 26 -
Max Christie * 34 10-13 4-6 0-0 7 2 1 1 1 24 21 -
Cooper Flagg * 34 3-12 0-2 4-4 7 6 2 1 2 10 12 -
Daniel Gafford * 19 4-5 0-0 1-2 8 1 0 2 1 9 14 -
P.J. Washington * 12 0-1 0-1 0-0 1 0 1 1 0 0 2 -
Naji Marshall 33 5-11 0-3 0-1 2 5 0 0 1 10 5 -
Brandon Williams 24 7-10 1-1 0-1 7 3 1 0 3 15 13 -
Klay Thompson 22 3-8 2-4 1-1 3 1 0 0 1 9 4 -
Ryan Nembhard 13 2-3 1-2 0-0 0 3 0 0 1 5 4 -
Caleb Martin 6 1-2 0-0 0-0 0 0 1 0 0 2 1 -

* = starter