Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Detroit Pistons | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 18.5% | 81.5% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 20.4% | 79.6% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 21.3% | 78.7% | +7.2 | ✗ (13.2 off) |
| Pythagorean | 40.9% | 59.1% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 25.6% | 74.4% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 30.4% | 69.6% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 30.4% | 69.6% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 33.1% | 66.9% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Detroit Pistons -6 (112-118). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norman Powell * | 34 | 12-23 | 7-14 | 5-5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 36 | 15 | - |
| Davion Mitchell * | 33 | 3-7 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 11 | - |
| Bam Adebayo * | 32 | 5-14 | 1-2 | 4-4 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 17 | - |
| Andrew Wiggins * | 31 | 7-20 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 6 | - |
| Kel'el Ware * | 27 | 1-6 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 | - |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 29 | 9-12 | 0-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 15 | - |
| Nikola Jović | 23 | 1-10 | 1-7 | 2-2 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4 | - |
| Dru Smith | 14 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 9 | - |
| Simone Fontecchio | 6 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | - |
| Kasparas Jakučionis | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Detroit Pistons
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Cunningham * | 39 | 6-16 | 2-6 | 17-18 | 8 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 31 | 32 | - |
| Ausar Thompson * | 30 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 9 | - |
| Isaiah Stewart * | 30 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 10 | - |
| Duncan Robinson * | 20 | 3-7 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 5 | - |
| Jalen Duren * | 18 | 6-12 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 5 | - |
| Javonte Green | 26 | 4-7 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 7 | - |
| Marcus Sasser | 23 | 6-10 | 4-6 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 14 | - |
| Jaden Ivey | 21 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Ronald Holland II | 17 | 1-7 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | - |
| Paul Reed | 12 | 4-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 14 | - |
* = starter