Model Predictions
| Model | Denver Nuggets | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 68.4% | 31.6% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 54.4% | 45.6% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 53.6% | 46.4% | -0.8 | ✗ (24.8 off) |
| Pythagorean | 49.6% | 50.4% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 57.1% | 42.9% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 52.6% | 47.4% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 52.5% | 47.5% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 47.0% | 53.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +24 (147-123). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Denver Nuggets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Murray * | 34 | 9-21 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 6 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 15 | - |
| Spencer Jones * | 33 | 5-6 | 5-5 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 18 | - |
| Peyton Watson * | 31 | 4-10 | 0-2 | 3-4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 5 | - |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. * | 28 | 6-13 | 2-6 | 2-3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 8 | - |
| Nikola Jokić * | 19 | 9-14 | 1-4 | 2-3 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 18 | - |
| Bruce Brown | 25 | 7-9 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 11 | - |
| Jonas Valančiūnas | 15 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | - |
| Julian Strawther | 14 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | - |
| Zeke Nnaji | 9 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | - |
| DaRon Holmes II | 8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | - |
| Curtis Jones | 6 | 1-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | - |
| Hunter Tyson | 6 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | - |
| Jalen Pickett | 6 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Wiggins * | 31 | 6-10 | 4-7 | 3-4 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 19 | 26 | - |
| Davion Mitchell * | 31 | 4-8 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 12 | - |
| Norman Powell * | 27 | 9-16 | 3-8 | 4-4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 25 | 12 | - |
| Kel'el Ware * | 23 | 8-12 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 17 | - |
| Bam Adebayo * | 21 | 5-10 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 16 | - |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 27 | 8-11 | 1-2 | 3-6 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 23 | - |
| Nikola Jović | 25 | 7-12 | 5-8 | 3-3 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 19 | - |
| Dru Smith | 21 | 4-6 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 11 | - |
| Pelle Larsson | 15 | 1-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | - |
| Keshad Johnson | 3 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | - |
| Simone Fontecchio | 3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 3-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - |
| Kasparas Jakučionis | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Myron Gardner | 3 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter