Model Predictions
| Model | Indiana Pacers | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 15.0% | 85.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 18.5% | 81.5% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 11.2% | 88.8% | +11.4 | ✓ (14.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 29.8% | 70.2% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 18.3% | 81.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 22.9% | 77.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 22.9% | 77.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 26.0% | 74.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +26 (142-116). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Indiana Pacers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bennedict Mathurin * | 34 | 9-16 | 3-7 | 4-5 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 25 | 12 | - |
| Andrew Nembhard * | 34 | 7-17 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 14 | - |
| Pascal Siakam * | 33 | 14-21 | 4-6 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 33 | 21 | - |
| Jay Huff * | 21 | 5-8 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 9 | - |
| Johnny Furphy * | 20 | 4-6 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 11 | - |
| Jarace Walker | 20 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | - |
| Aaron Nesmith | 19 | 3-9 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 7 | - |
| Quenton Jackson | 13 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | - |
| Tony Bradley | 11 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | - |
| Ethan Thompson | 11 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -2 | - |
| Micah Potter | 10 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Taelon Peter | 3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Kam Jones | 3 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Wiggins * | 30 | 12-16 | 4-4 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 28 | 23 | - |
| Kel'el Ware * | 28 | 7-11 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 15 | - |
| Norman Powell * | 28 | 7-19 | 1-3 | 8-8 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 13 | - |
| Pelle Larsson * | 27 | 5-7 | 1-1 | 5-6 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 21 | - |
| Davion Mitchell * | 19 | 0-6 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 28 | 11-15 | 1-1 | 5-5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 28 | 21 | - |
| Nikola Jović | 24 | 7-14 | 3-8 | 2-2 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 19 | - |
| Dru Smith | 23 | 2-6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | - |
| Kasparas Jakučionis | 22 | 2-8 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | - |
| Simone Fontecchio | 3 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Keshad Johnson | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Myron Gardner | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter