Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Atlanta Hawks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 30.7% | 69.3% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 42.0% | 58.0% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 43.9% | 56.1% | +1.4 | ✗ (16.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 48.6% | 51.4% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 55.3% | 44.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 53.7% | 46.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 53.7% | 46.3% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 48.3% | 51.7% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Atlanta Hawks -15 (111-126). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kel'el Ware * | 32 | 7-10 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 18 | - |
| Norman Powell * | 32 | 9-16 | 2-8 | 5-5 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 20 | - |
| Andrew Wiggins * | 32 | 9-17 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 14 | - |
| Pelle Larsson * | 29 | 9-13 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 20 | - |
| Davion Mitchell * | 29 | 3-8 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 6 | - |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 27 | 5-14 | 1-3 | 5-6 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 12 | - |
| Nikola Jović | 21 | 3-14 | 1-6 | 3-3 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 6 | - |
| Dru Smith | 18 | 2-8 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | - |
| Kasparas Jakučionis | 15 | 2-4 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 | - |
Atlanta Hawks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Johnson * | 37 | 10-17 | 1-6 | 3-4 | 9 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 24 | 23 | - |
| Dyson Daniels * | 35 | 4-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 10 | - |
| Onyeka Okongwu * | 34 | 5-16 | 0-5 | 2-2 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 8 | - |
| Trae Young * | 32 | 8-16 | 5-8 | 9-9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 30 | 19 | - |
| Zaccharie Risacher * | 20 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1 | - |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | 31 | 6-14 | 2-5 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 8 | - |
| Vít Krejčí | 21 | 4-9 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 5 | - |
| Asa Newell | 12 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Mouhamed Gueye | 11 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4-5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 | - |
| Keaton Wallace | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | - |
* = starter