Model Predictions
| Model | Denver Nuggets | Dallas Mavericks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 84.9% | 15.1% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 75.4% | 24.6% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 81.4% | 18.6% | -8.1 | ✗ (9.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 61.9% | 38.1% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 66.9% | 33.1% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 63.0% | 37.0% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 63.1% | 36.9% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 55.7% | 44.3% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Dallas Mavericks +1 (131-130). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Denver Nuggets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Murray * | 37 | 12-21 | 3-7 | 4-4 | 7 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 31 | 29 | - |
| Nikola Jokić * | 36 | 12-22 | 5-10 | 0-0 | 7 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 29 | 28 | - |
| Spencer Jones * | 26 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 8 | - |
| Peyton Watson * | 24 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 4-4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | - |
| Cameron Johnson * | 23 | 3-7 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 6 | - |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | 29 | 8-13 | 7-12 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 13 | - |
| Bruce Brown | 26 | 6-7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 16 | - |
| Jonas Valančiūnas | 14 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 5 | - |
| Julian Strawther | 12 | 3-4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 6 | - |
| Jalen Pickett | 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Curtis Jones | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Flagg * | 39 | 14-21 | 4-6 | 1-1 | 9 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 33 | 30 | - |
| Anthony Davis * | 35 | 12-19 | 1-2 | 6-6 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 31 | 27 | - |
| Ryan Nembhard * | 32 | 5-11 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 9 | - |
| Naji Marshall * | 31 | 6-11 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 11 | - |
| Jaden Hardy * | 27 | 5-9 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 5 | - |
| Caleb Martin | 24 | 4-6 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 10 | - |
| Daniel Gafford | 17 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | - |
| Brandon Williams | 15 | 2-6 | 0-3 | 5-6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 3 | - |
| D'Angelo Russell | 15 | 3-6 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 | - |
* = starter