Model Predictions
| Model | Houston Rockets | Denver Nuggets | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 30.2% | 69.8% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 40.8% | 59.2% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 41.6% | 58.4% | +1.9 | ✗ (15.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 47.5% | 52.5% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 52.8% | 47.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 52.7% | 47.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 52.7% | 47.3% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 46.9% | 53.1% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Denver Nuggets -14 (101-115). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Houston Rockets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Durant * | 39 | 8-14 | 5-6 | 10-11 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 31 | 26 | - |
| Jabari Smith Jr. * | 38 | 8-14 | 5-11 | 1-2 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 17 | - |
| Amen Thompson * | 38 | 7-14 | 0-2 | 2-4 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 13 | - |
| Alperen Sengun * | 30 | 4-9 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 6 | - |
| Josh Okogie * | 28 | 3-5 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 9 | - |
| Reed Sheppard | 30 | 9-15 | 6-9 | 4-4 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 28 | 25 | - |
| Steven Adams | 25 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | - |
| Aaron Holiday | 7 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Jae'Sean Tate | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Denver Nuggets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Murray * | 34 | 4-13 | 3-7 | 5-6 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 14 | - |
| Cameron Johnson * | 31 | 2-10 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | - |
| Nikola Jokić * | 29 | 9-20 | 1-4 | 6-7 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 25 | 12 | - |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. * | 29 | 3-9 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0 | - |
| Spencer Jones * | 27 | 4-8 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 | - |
| Bruce Brown | 27 | 5-8 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 20 | - |
| Jalen Pickett | 22 | 4-7 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 7 | - |
| Jonas Valančiūnas | 15 | 5-10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 3 | - |
| Zeke Nnaji | 11 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | - |
| Julian Strawther | 4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Hunter Tyson | 4 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | - |
* = starter