Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Boston Celtics | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 22.8% | 77.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 30.9% | 69.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 22.6% | 77.4% | +6.8 | ✓ (6.2 off) |
| Pythagorean | 41.2% | 58.8% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 25.9% | 74.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 30.0% | 70.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 30.0% | 70.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 32.2% | 67.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Boston Celtics +13 (129-116). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. * | 36 | 5-15 | 1-5 | 3-4 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 7 | - |
| Bam Adebayo * | 36 | 6-13 | 0-1 | 4-6 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 15 | - |
| Kasparas Jakučionis * | 35 | 5-13 | 5-8 | 2-2 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 13 | - |
| Norman Powell * | 34 | 7-21 | 1-11 | 3-5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 4 | - |
| Kel'el Ware * | 27 | 8-12 | 6-7 | 2-2 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 29 | - |
| Simone Fontecchio | 30 | 4-13 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 4 | - |
| Dru Smith | 21 | 2-10 | 0-4 | 3-5 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 2 | - |
| Myron Gardner | 16 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | - |
| Keshad Johnson | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - |
| Vladislav Goldin | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
Boston Celtics
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick White * | 35 | 11-20 | 9-14 | 2-2 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 33 | 27 | - |
| Jaylen Brown * | 34 | 9-18 | 2-4 | 10-11 | 9 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 30 | 24 | - |
| Payton Pritchard * | 26 | 2-8 | 2-8 | 3-4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 11 | - |
| Neemias Queta * | 25 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 11 | - |
| Jordan Walsh * | 21 | 2-6 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 9 | - |
| Hugo González | 29 | 4-7 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 12 | - |
| Anfernee Simons | 28 | 6-10 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 8 | - |
| Sam Hauser | 25 | 5-6 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 14 | - |
| Josh Minott | 6 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Baylor Scheierman | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter