Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Orlando Magic | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 30.7% | 69.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 37.1% | 62.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 45.7% | 54.3% | +0.9 | ✓ (0.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 49.5% | 50.5% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 48.5% | 51.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 46.9% | 53.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 46.9% | 53.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 43.3% | 56.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Orlando Magic +1 (106-105). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo * | 39 | 9-15 | 2-4 | 4-6 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 24 | 26 | - |
| Andrew Wiggins * | 33 | 5-10 | 2-4 | 1-4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 13 | - |
| Norman Powell * | 32 | 9-18 | 2-5 | 8-11 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 28 | 15 | - |
| Davion Mitchell * | 27 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 11 | - |
| Kel'el Ware * | 22 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 9 | - |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 33 | 8-14 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 6 | - |
| Pelle Larsson | 18 | 0-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | - |
| Dru Smith | 17 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 7 | - |
| Simone Fontecchio | 15 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | - |
Orlando Magic
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Franz Wagner * | 34 | 12-22 | 4-9 | 4-6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 32 | 17 | - |
| Desmond Bane * | 32 | 2-16 | 1-8 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | - |
| Jalen Suggs * | 28 | 9-19 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 12 | - |
| Wendell Carter Jr. * | 27 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 10 | - |
| Paolo Banchero * | 20 | 3-8 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 8 | - |
| Anthony Black | 31 | 2-9 | 0-2 | 9-12 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 18 | - |
| Tristan da Silva | 24 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | - |
| Goga Bitadze | 20 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 14 | - |
| Tyus Jones | 15 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 4 | - |
| Jase Richardson | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter