Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Dallas Mavericks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 64.8% | 35.2% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 65.8% | 34.2% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 73.2% | 26.8% | -5.5 | ✗ (15.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 59.4% | 40.6% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 57.7% | 42.3% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 57.9% | 42.1% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 57.9% | 42.1% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 51.9% | 48.1% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Dallas Mavericks +10 (118-108). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Wiggins * | 33 | 4-18 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 5 | - |
| Tyler Herro * | 33 | 8-17 | 2-7 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 7 | - |
| Davion Mitchell * | 30 | 2-7 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | - |
| Bam Adebayo * | 28 | 10-19 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 10 | - |
| Pelle Larsson * | 22 | 1-5 | 0-4 | 2-3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | - |
| Kel'el Ware | 25 | 8-11 | 4-5 | 2-2 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 22 | - |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 21 | 3-10 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 9 | - |
| Simone Fontecchio | 21 | 2-8 | 2-7 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 6 | - |
| Dru Smith | 17 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 3-3 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 14 | - |
| Nikola Jović | 6 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naji Marshall * | 35 | 8-12 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 18 | - |
| Ryan Nembhard * | 33 | 6-10 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 5 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 23 | - |
| Max Christie * | 32 | 3-6 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 7 | - |
| Cooper Flagg * | 31 | 9-13 | 0-0 | 4-5 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 16 | - |
| Anthony Davis * | 28 | 7-17 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 17 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 21 | - |
| Klay Thompson | 26 | 6-17 | 5-12 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 5 | - |
| D'Angelo Russell | 15 | 4-7 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 8 | - |
| Daniel Gafford | 14 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | - |
| Brandon Williams | 13 | 3-7 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 2 | - |
| Dwight Powell | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
| Caleb Martin | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter