Model Predictions
| Model | Dallas Mavericks | Denver Nuggets | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 8.2% | 91.8% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 15.5% | 84.5% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 10.7% | 89.3% | +11.7 | ✗ (21.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 32.1% | 67.9% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 27.1% | 72.9% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 31.0% | 69.0% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 30.9% | 69.1% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 31.6% | 68.4% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Denver Nuggets -10 (121-131). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Nembhard * | 34 | 12-14 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 27 | - |
| Cooper Flagg * | 33 | 10-19 | 1-3 | 3-4 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 24 | 16 | - |
| Naji Marshall * | 32 | 4-7 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 12 | - |
| Anthony Davis * | 32 | 13-23 | 2-4 | 4-5 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 32 | 29 | - |
| Max Christie * | 29 | 3-5 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 6 | - |
| Klay Thompson | 23 | 5-10 | 3-5 | 2-4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 10 | - |
| D'Angelo Russell | 18 | 3-8 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 1 | - |
| Dwight Powell | 15 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 | - |
| Brandon Williams | 13 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Caleb Martin | 7 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - |
Denver Nuggets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Jones * | 38 | 11-15 | 4-6 | 2-2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 28 | 17 | - |
| Nikola Jokić * | 37 | 10-24 | 3-10 | 6-7 | 20 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 29 | 39 | - |
| Cameron Johnson * | 36 | 3-10 | 1-6 | 3-4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 4 | - |
| Peyton Watson * | 34 | 7-14 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 15 | 12 | - |
| Jamal Murray * | 26 | 3-8 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 4 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 13 | - |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | 30 | 6-12 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 9 | - |
| Bruce Brown | 19 | 3-9 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 4 | - |
| Jonas Valančiūnas | 11 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 10 | - |
| Zeke Nnaji | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | - |
* = starter