Model Predictions
| Model | Detroit Pistons | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 68.8% | 31.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 68.6% | 31.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 65.8% | 34.2% | -3.6 | ✓ (0.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 53.1% | 46.9% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 68.4% | 31.6% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 63.6% | 36.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 63.6% | 36.4% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 53.9% | 46.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat -3 (135-138). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Detroit Pistons
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Cunningham * | 38 | 14-25 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 29 | 11 | - |
| Duncan Robinson * | 31 | 7-14 | 3-9 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 15 | - |
| Tobias Harris * | 30 | 10-12 | 4-6 | 2-4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 26 | 17 | - |
| Ausar Thompson * | 30 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 10 | - |
| Isaiah Stewart * | 28 | 4-7 | 0-1 | 1-3 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 11 | - |
| Ronald Holland II | 23 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 9 | - |
| Paul Reed | 19 | 5-9 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 15 | - |
| Jaden Ivey | 14 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 4-4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 6 | - |
| Daniss Jenkins | 14 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 11 | - |
| Javonte Green | 8 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Wiggins * | 36 | 10-15 | 2-4 | 9-9 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 31 | 28 | - |
| Norman Powell * | 33 | 9-16 | 3-6 | 7-8 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 28 | 15 | - |
| Bam Adebayo * | 33 | 5-9 | 1-2 | 4-6 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 17 | - |
| Davion Mitchell * | 32 | 2-8 | 0-2 | 3-4 | 1 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 13 | - |
| Tyler Herro * | 32 | 6-17 | 6-11 | 6-6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 24 | 12 | - |
| Pelle Larsson | 24 | 2-6 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 5 | - |
| Kel'el Ware | 21 | 6-9 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 10 | - |
| Dru Smith | 15 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 2-3 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 13 | - |
| Nikola Jović | 10 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | -3 | - |
* = starter