Model Predictions
| Model | Dallas Mavericks | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 21.4% | 78.6% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 22.6% | 77.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 16.0% | 84.0% | +9.1 | ✓ (5.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 34.6% | 65.4% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 36.3% | 63.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 36.1% | 63.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 36.1% | 63.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 34.9% | 65.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +4 (106-102). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.J. Washington * | 34 | 10-21 | 3-8 | 4-4 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 27 | 15 | - |
| Cooper Flagg * | 33 | 5-14 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 7 | - |
| Max Christie * | 30 | 5-9 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 12 | - |
| Daniel Gafford * | 28 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 16 | - |
| Brandon Williams * | 20 | 4-13 | 1-4 | 3-4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 4 | - |
| Naji Marshall | 21 | 3-7 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 5 | - |
| Klay Thompson | 20 | 5-12 | 3-9 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 5 | - |
| Ryan Nembhard | 16 | 1-7 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | - |
| Dwight Powell | 10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - |
| D'Angelo Russell | 9 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | - |
| Jaden Hardy | 4 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | - |
| Caleb Martin | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Moussa Cisse | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kel'el Ware * | 33 | 7-14 | 3-5 | 3-3 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 24 | - |
| Davion Mitchell * | 32 | 4-8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 8 | - |
| Bam Adebayo * | 29 | 5-13 | 0-3 | 7-11 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 12 | - |
| Tyler Herro * | 29 | 12-18 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 16 | - |
| Pelle Larsson * | 28 | 4-10 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 9 | - |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 32 | 5-11 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 10 | - |
| Simone Fontecchio | 21 | 2-10 | 0-7 | 4-4 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 6 | - |
| Keshad Johnson | 17 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 | - |
| Dru Smith | 15 | 0-6 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | - |
* = starter