Model Predictions
| Model | Golden State Warriors | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 25.3% | 74.7% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 36.0% | 64.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 32.0% | 68.0% | +4.2 | ✓ (9.8 off) |
| Pythagorean | 42.9% | 57.1% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 50.4% | 49.6% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 50.7% | 49.3% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 50.7% | 49.3% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 44.7% | 55.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +14 (110-96). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Golden State Warriors
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moses Moody * | 35 | 3-12 | 1-6 | 2-2 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 6 | - |
| Brandin Podziemski * | 34 | 6-19 | 2-7 | 6-7 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 8 | - |
| Trayce Jackson-Davis * | 24 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 4-7 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 17 | - |
| Will Richard * | 18 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Gui Santos * | 18 | 1-7 | 1-6 | 1-2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | - |
| Pat Spencer | 32 | 5-13 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 8 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 19 | - |
| Buddy Hield | 30 | 7-20 | 4-15 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 5 | - |
| Quinten Post | 26 | 8-13 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 10 | - |
| Gary Payton II | 19 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 13 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Wiggins * | 34 | 7-16 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 10 | - |
| Pelle Larsson * | 28 | 3-11 | 1-4 | 3-4 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 5 | - |
| Bam Adebayo * | 28 | 7-13 | 3-4 | 3-3 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 19 | - |
| Norman Powell * | 28 | 10-14 | 4-7 | 1-1 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 20 | - |
| Davion Mitchell * | 24 | 2-5 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 | - |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 34 | 4-12 | 0-2 | 4-5 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 12 | - |
| Dru Smith | 23 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 2-4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 7 | - |
| Kel'el Ware | 19 | 3-10 | 0-3 | 1-2 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 12 | - |
| Simone Fontecchio | 18 | 2-10 | 2-8 | 4-5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 3 | - |
* = starter