Model Predictions
| Model | Cleveland Cavaliers | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 59.6% | 40.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 52.0% | 48.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 50.1% | 49.9% | -0.0 | ✓ (14.0 off) |
| Pythagorean | 48.8% | 51.2% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 53.9% | 46.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 53.2% | 46.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 53.1% | 46.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 46.9% | 53.1% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Miami Heat -14 (116-130). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Cleveland Cavaliers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Andre Hunter * | 28 | 8-13 | 1-5 | 4-5 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 15 | - |
| Jarrett Allen * | 27 | 12-20 | 0-1 | 6-7 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 30 | 21 | - |
| Dean Wade * | 26 | 3-7 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 6 | - |
| Lonzo Ball * | 20 | 4-8 | 4-7 | 3-3 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 16 | - |
| Sam Merrill * | 20 | 1-10 | 1-8 | 2-2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | - |
| Craig Porter Jr. | 32 | 7-12 | 3-3 | 2-3 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 19 | 25 | - |
| Tyrese Proctor | 22 | 4-15 | 2-8 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 1 | - |
| Larry Nance Jr. | 19 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 8 | - |
| Nae'Qwan Tomlin | 17 | 2-7 | 0-4 | 5-6 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 12 | - |
| Luke Travers | 12 | 1-5 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 | - |
| Thomas Bryant | 12 | 2-4 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 8 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davion Mitchell * | 33 | 7-13 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 10 | - |
| Andrew Wiggins * | 33 | 7-13 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 16 | - |
| Norman Powell * | 32 | 10-18 | 5-10 | 2-2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 27 | 13 | - |
| Pelle Larsson * | 27 | 3-7 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 4 | - |
| Kel'el Ware * | 27 | 6-7 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 23 | - |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 29 | 4-15 | 0-4 | 3-3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 2 | - |
| Nikola Jović | 22 | 1-6 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Simone Fontecchio | 19 | 4-7 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 9 | - |
| Dru Smith | 14 | 3-8 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | - |
* = starter