Model Predictions
| Model | Cleveland Cavaliers | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 59.6% | 40.4% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 52.0% | 48.0% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 50.1% | 49.9% | -0.0 | ✗ (2.0 off) |
| Pythagorean | 48.8% | 51.2% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 53.9% | 46.1% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 53.2% | 46.8% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 53.1% | 46.9% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 46.9% | 53.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +2 (140-138). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Cleveland Cavaliers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan Mitchell * | 40 | 10-28 | 3-16 | 5-6 | 15 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 28 | 23 | - |
| Evan Mobley * | 38 | 8-15 | 3-4 | 2-7 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 20 | - |
| De'Andre Hunter * | 35 | 9-19 | 2-8 | 3-3 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 12 | - |
| Jarrett Allen * | 20 | 6-9 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 12 | - |
| Darius Garland * | 18 | 2-9 | 1-3 | 6-6 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 11 | - |
| Sam Merrill | 32 | 4-16 | 4-16 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | - |
| Jaylon Tyson | 31 | 3-10 | 2-6 | 1-2 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 13 | - |
| Dean Wade | 21 | 3-5 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 8 | - |
| Lonzo Ball | 19 | 3-7 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 | - |
| Craig Porter Jr. | 5 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davion Mitchell * | 38 | 4-9 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 8 | - |
| Norman Powell * | 38 | 8-19 | 4-9 | 13-14 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 33 | 19 | - |
| Andrew Wiggins * | 37 | 8-13 | 2-5 | 5-6 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 16 | - |
| Kel'el Ware * | 33 | 7-14 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 23 | - |
| Pelle Larsson * | 26 | 4-8 | 0-2 | 2-3 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 8 | - |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 33 | 7-12 | 0-1 | 8-8 | 13 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 31 | - |
| Nikola Jović | 26 | 3-10 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 10 | - |
| Simone Fontecchio | 16 | 4-9 | 3-7 | 2-3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 9 | - |
| Dru Smith | 14 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 3-3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | - |
* = starter