Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Denver Nuggets | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 18.8% | 81.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 32.0% | 68.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 31.1% | 68.9% | +4.4 | ✓ (5.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 44.4% | 55.6% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 36.9% | 63.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 41.4% | 58.6% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 41.5% | 58.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 39.5% | 60.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Denver Nuggets +10 (122-112). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davion Mitchell * | 31 | 4-6 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 13 | - |
| Andrew Wiggins * | 31 | 9-13 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 21 | - |
| Norman Powell * | 30 | 5-15 | 4-8 | 9-9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 8 | - |
| Pelle Larsson * | 23 | 1-4 | 0-3 | 4-4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 7 | - |
| Bam Adebayo * | 8 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | - |
| Kel'el Ware | 27 | 4-6 | 2-4 | 3-4 | 13 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 24 | - |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 26 | 9-14 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 12 | - |
| Nikola Jović | 19 | 1-6 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 2 | - |
| Dru Smith | 16 | 2-6 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 | - |
| Simone Fontecchio | 15 | 2-7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | - |
| Keshad Johnson | 9 | 0-4 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | - |
Denver Nuggets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Jokić * | 36 | 12-18 | 2-5 | 7-8 | 15 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 33 | 46 | - |
| Christian Braun * | 35 | 5-14 | 0-3 | 1-1 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 15 | - |
| Jamal Murray * | 33 | 4-15 | 1-8 | 5-5 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 11 | - |
| Aaron Gordon * | 30 | 9-16 | 1-5 | 5-6 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 24 | 13 | - |
| Cameron Johnson * | 23 | 3-10 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | - |
| Bruce Brown | 27 | 2-7 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 2 | - |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | 24 | 7-12 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 8 | - |
| Peyton Watson | 17 | 0-4 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 | - |
| Jonas Valančiūnas | 10 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 5 | - |
* = starter