Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Los Angeles Lakers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 24.6% | 75.4% | - | β |
| Bradley-Terry | 30.1% | 69.9% | - | β |
| Margin | 43.1% | 56.9% | +1.5 | β (8.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 48.5% | 51.5% | - | β |
| Efficiency | 53.3% | 46.7% | - | β |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 56.7% | 43.3% | - | β |
| Log Adjusted | 56.8% | 43.2% | - | β |
| Points Off/Def | 49.3% | 50.7% | - | β |
Actual: Los Angeles Lakers +10 (130-120). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Wiggins * | 36 | 6-16 | 1-6 | 2-3 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 7 | - |
| Bam Adebayo * | 36 | 6-11 | 1-5 | 4-4 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 23 | - |
| Davion Mitchell * | 31 | 3-5 | 1-1 | 1-4 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 11 | - |
| Pelle Larsson * | 26 | 6-10 | 1-4 | 4-4 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 17 | - |
| Kel'el Ware * | 11 | 3-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 8 | - |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 34 | 11-16 | 0-0 | 9-13 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 31 | 23 | - |
| Nikola JoviΔ | 27 | 3-8 | 1-5 | 2-4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 5 | - |
| Simone Fontecchio | 18 | 2-10 | 2-8 | 3-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 2 | - |
| Dru Smith | 16 | 3-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 6 | - |
Los Angeles Lakers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luka DonΔiΔ * | 38 | 9-22 | 1-11 | 10-12 | 11 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 29 | 26 | - |
| Austin Reaves * | 37 | 9-22 | 4-14 | 4-5 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 26 | 16 | - |
| Jaxson Hayes * | 32 | 7-7 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 15 | - |
| Rui Hachimura * | 30 | 6-12 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 10 | - |
| Marcus Smart * | 26 | 4-9 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 12 | - |
| Jake LaRavia | 34 | 10-13 | 2-3 | 3-4 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 26 | - |
| Bronny James | 18 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Dalton Knecht | 11 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -1 | - |
| Jarred Vanderbilt | 9 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | - |
* = starter