Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | San Antonio Spurs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 13.7% | 86.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 18.0% | 82.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 17.6% | 82.4% | +8.5 | ✓ (2.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 40.4% | 59.6% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 30.9% | 69.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 34.5% | 65.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 34.6% | 65.4% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 35.3% | 64.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: San Antonio Spurs +6 (107-101). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo * | 37 | 12-27 | 4-13 | 3-4 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 31 | 17 | - |
| Andrew Wiggins * | 35 | 11-18 | 2-5 | 0-2 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 14 | - |
| Davion Mitchell * | 28 | 4-10 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 4 | - |
| Pelle Larsson * | 26 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | - |
| Kel'el Ware * | 20 | 0-4 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | - |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 34 | 2-8 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 11 | - |
| Simone Fontecchio | 27 | 5-9 | 5-7 | 3-3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 13 | - |
| Dru Smith | 20 | 3-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 8 | - |
| Nikola Jović | 9 | 0-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -4 | - |
San Antonio Spurs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Wembanyama * | 39 | 10-23 | 1-5 | 6-8 | 18 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 27 | 31 | - |
| Devin Vassell * | 37 | 6-16 | 4-12 | 1-2 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 11 | - |
| Stephon Castle * | 35 | 7-12 | 2-4 | 5-7 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 26 | - |
| Harrison Barnes * | 30 | 3-8 | 2-6 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 6 | - |
| Julian Champagnie * | 30 | 1-6 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | - |
| Dylan Harper | 24 | 5-10 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 7 | - |
| Keldon Johnson | 23 | 4-7 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 8 | - |
| Jordan McLaughlin | 11 | 2-4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 7 | - |
| Bismack Biyombo | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter