Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Memphis Grizzlies | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 87.6% | 12.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 61.0% | 39.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 74.9% | 25.1% | -6.0 | ✓ (26.0 off) |
| Pythagorean | 60.3% | 39.7% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 61.2% | 38.8% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 58.8% | 41.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 58.9% | 41.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 52.5% | 47.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Memphis Grizzlies -32 (114-146). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo * | 28 | 8-19 | 4-8 | 4-4 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 14 | - |
| Norman Powell * | 24 | 5-10 | 2-4 | 3-4 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 12 | - |
| Andrew Wiggins * | 23 | 4-8 | 0-1 | 2-5 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 12 | - |
| Kel'el Ware * | 22 | 8-12 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 17 | - |
| Davion Mitchell * | 20 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 | - |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 26 | 8-12 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 20 | - |
| Nikola Jović | 26 | 6-9 | 3-6 | 5-5 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 22 | - |
| Simone Fontecchio | 23 | 5-9 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 12 | - |
| Dru Smith | 20 | 4-8 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 13 | - |
| Keshad Johnson | 7 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | - |
| Pelle Larsson | 7 | 3-5 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 4 | - |
| Jahmir Young | 6 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | - |
Memphis Grizzlies
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kentavious Caldwell-Pope * | 23 | 2-6 | 2-5 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 10 | - |
| Jaylen Wells * | 22 | 3-9 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 4 | - |
| Jaren Jackson Jr. * | 21 | 7-14 | 1-4 | 4-4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 8 | - |
| Ja Morant * | 21 | 4-16 | 0-4 | 4-4 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 1 | - |
| Jock Landale * | 17 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | - |
| Javon Small | 22 | 2-9 | 2-6 | 3-4 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 7 | - |
| Cedric Coward | 22 | 5-9 | 2-5 | 4-4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 13 | - |
| Santi Aldama | 19 | 6-9 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 12 | - |
| GG Jackson | 16 | 2-7 | 0-3 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | - |
| Olivier-Maxence Prosper | 16 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 7 | - |
| Cam Spencer | 14 | 0-5 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | - |
| PJ Hall | 14 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 7 | - |
| John Konchar | 7 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | - |
* = starter