Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Orlando Magic | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 21.9% | 78.1% | +5.3 | โ (1.3 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 39.2% | 60.8% | - | โ |
| Margin | 46.1% | 53.9% | +0.9 | โ (3.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 49.1% | 50.9% | - | โ |
| Efficiency | 53.5% | 46.5% | - | โ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 50.8% | 49.2% | - | โ |
| Log Adjusted | 50.8% | 49.2% | - | โ |
| Points Off/Def | 46.1% | 53.9% | - | โ |
Actual: Orlando Magic +4 (125-121). Ratings: 2025-26 season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norman Powell * | 36 | 9-19 | 4-8 | 6-7 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 28 | 21 | - |
| Davion Mitchell * | 34 | 7-15 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 6 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 21 | - |
| Bam Adebayo * | 34 | 4-13 | 1-5 | 6-7 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 12 | - |
| Andrew Wiggins * | 31 | 6-12 | 1-5 | 5-7 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 12 | - |
| Nikola Joviฤ * | 23 | 2-6 | 2-3 | 3-4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 4 | - |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 29 | 6-7 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 13 | - |
| Simone Fontecchio | 18 | 6-9 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 6 | - |
| Dru Smith | 13 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | - |
| Kel'el Ware | 13 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 7 | - |
| Pelle Larsson | 3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
Orlando Magic
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Franz Wagner * | 35 | 9-17 | 2-5 | 4-6 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 17 | - |
| Paolo Banchero * | 35 | 7-17 | 1-3 | 9-12 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 24 | 19 | - |
| Desmond Bane * | 32 | 7-18 | 3-6 | 6-6 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 23 | 10 | - |
| Wendell Carter Jr. * | 29 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 5-5 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 13 | - |
| Jalen Suggs * | 16 | 6-7 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 13 | - |
| Tyus Jones | 23 | 0-4 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Anthony Black | 23 | 3-9 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 5 | - |
| Tristan da Silva | 18 | 5-8 | 3-5 | 3-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 8 | - |
| Goga Bitadze | 18 | 3-4 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 18 | - |
| Jonathan Isaac | 7 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter