Model Predictions
| Model | Milwaukee Bucks | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 19.5% | 80.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 30.3% | 69.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 14.2% | 85.8% | +9.9 | ✓ (6.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 32.9% | 67.1% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 31.6% | 68.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 32.1% | 67.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 32.0% | 68.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 33.3% | 66.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +3 (106-103). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Milwaukee Bucks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Rollins * | 41 | 11-24 | 4-14 | 0-1 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 26 | 11 | - |
| AJ Green * | 36 | 4-6 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 21 | - |
| Gary Trent Jr. * | 34 | 5-14 | 5-12 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 5 | - |
| Myles Turner * | 31 | 9-15 | 1-5 | 5-8 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 19 | - |
| Kyle Kuzma * | 29 | 4-11 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 13 | - |
| Bobby Portis | 20 | 4-14 | 0-3 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 1 | - |
| Gary Harris | 18 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | - |
| Jericho Sims | 16 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | - |
| Cole Anthony | 11 | 0-7 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Herro * | 32 | 9-15 | 3-5 | 8-8 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 29 | 26 | - |
| Andrew Wiggins * | 31 | 4-11 | 1-6 | 2-3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 6 | - |
| Norman Powell * | 28 | 4-11 | 0-5 | 3-3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 5 | - |
| Bam Adebayo * | 28 | 7-16 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 14 | - |
| Davion Mitchell * | 28 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 11 | - |
| Kel'el Ware | 26 | 4-6 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 16 | - |
| Pelle Larsson | 21 | 3-10 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 4 | - |
| Dru Smith | 19 | 2-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | - |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 17 | 4-6 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 10 | - |
| Simone Fontecchio | 6 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | - |
* = starter