Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Detroit Pistons | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 19.5% | 80.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 30.4% | 69.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 28.3% | 71.7% | +5.1 | ✓ (4.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 44.5% | 55.5% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 38.9% | 61.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 38.3% | 61.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 38.3% | 61.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 38.1% | 61.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Detroit Pistons +1 (125-124). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Butler * | 44 | 12-21 | 1-3 | 10-12 | 19 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 35 | 48 | - | |
| Tyler Herro * | 40 | 9-25 | 4-17 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 4 | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 40 | 6-12 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 15 | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 23 | 5-10 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 5 | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith * | 19 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | - | |
| Terry Rozier | 33 | 3-8 | 1-4 | 4-4 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 15 | - | |
| Dru Smith | 30 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 11 | - | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 18 | 5-12 | 0-3 | 3-3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 7 | - | |
| Kevin Love | 12 | 2-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | - |
Detroit Pistons
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Cunningham * | 42 | 7-17 | 3-6 | 3-5 | 11 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 33 | - | |
| Malik Beasley * | 40 | 9-18 | 7-13 | 3-3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 28 | 18 | - | |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. * | 36 | 5-11 | 5-10 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 10 | - | |
| Jalen Duren * | 31 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 22 | - | |
| Ausar Thompson * | 26 | 8-14 | 1-3 | 2-4 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 19 | 20 | - | |
| Simone Fontecchio | 24 | 2-6 | 1-3 | 4-4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 7 | - | |
| Ronald Holland II | 23 | 3-5 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 8 | - | |
| Marcus Sasser | 20 | 2-4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6 | - | |
| Paul Reed | 11 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | - | |
| Isaiah Stewart | 7 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | - |
* = starter