Model Predictions
| Model | Toronto Raptors | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 48.5% | 51.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 40.9% | 59.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 31.3% | 68.7% | +4.3 | ✓ (5.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 41.6% | 58.4% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 34.3% | 65.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 34.6% | 65.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 34.6% | 65.4% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 34.7% | 65.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +10 (114-104). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Toronto Raptors
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RJ Barrett * | 33 | 5-18 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 11 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 19 | - | |
| Ochai Agbaji * | 30 | 6-8 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 9 | - | |
| Gradey Dick * | 30 | 8-19 | 3-11 | 3-4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 9 | - | |
| Jonathan Mogbo * | 29 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 14 | - | |
| Bruno Fernando * | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - | |
| Jakob Poeltl | 27 | 7-12 | 0-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 12 | - | |
| Ja'Kobe Walter | 25 | 3-8 | 2-5 | 1-1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 6 | - | |
| Davion Mitchell | 20 | 4-6 | 1-1 | 3-3 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 14 | - | |
| Jamison Battle | 15 | 3-4 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 7 | - | |
| Jamal Shead | 13 | 2-5 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | - | |
| Kelly Olynyk | 11 | 0-6 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo * | 34 | 8-17 | 1-3 | 4-6 | 16 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 26 | - | |
| Tyler Herro * | 32 | 9-13 | 4-7 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 18 | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 29 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 5-8 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 13 | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith * | 18 | 3-10 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 17 | 4-8 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 6 | - | |
| Dru Smith | 33 | 3-7 | 1-3 | 4-6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 11 | - | |
| Terry Rozier | 24 | 1-6 | 1-6 | 2-2 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 9 | - | |
| Nikola Jović | 24 | 4-5 | 2-2 | 4-7 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 16 | - | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 15 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | - | |
| Kevin Love | 8 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | - |
* = starter