Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Boston Celtics | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 20.3% | 79.7% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 22.4% | 77.6% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 15.1% | 84.9% | +9.5 | ✗ (30.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 37.8% | 62.2% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 16.1% | 83.9% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 20.3% | 79.7% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 20.2% | 79.8% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 25.7% | 74.3% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Boston Celtics -21 (103-124). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Herro * | 38 | 7-18 | 2-6 | 9-10 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 25 | 24 | - | |
| Kel'el Ware * | 31 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 9 | - | |
| Pelle Larsson * | 30 | 4-9 | 2-3 | 6-7 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 16 | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 30 | 9-15 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 17 | - | |
| Alec Burks * | 19 | 4-5 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 7 | - | |
| Davion Mitchell | 33 | 5-10 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 17 | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith | 25 | 4-8 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 7 | - | |
| Kyle Anderson | 23 | 7-11 | 1-2 | 4-4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 11 | - | |
| Isaiah Stevens | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - | |
| Josh Christopher | 1 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | |
| Keshad Johnson | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
Boston Celtics
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayson Tatum * | 31 | 4-17 | 2-9 | 6-7 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 10 | - | |
| Derrick White * | 31 | 5-11 | 2-7 | 4-5 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 18 | - | |
| Jaylen Brown * | 28 | 10-20 | 2-6 | 2-3 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 17 | - | |
| Sam Hauser * | 25 | 2-5 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | - | |
| Luke Kornet * | 21 | 7-9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 13 | - | |
| Payton Pritchard | 31 | 4-9 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 8 | - | |
| Torrey Craig | 19 | 1-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | - | |
| Neemias Queta | 18 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 14 | - | |
| Baylor Scheierman | 16 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | - | |
| Drew Peterson | 5 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | - | |
| JD Davison | 5 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | - | |
| Jordan Walsh | 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
* = starter