Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Washington Wizards | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 64.4% | 35.6% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 67.1% | 32.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 85.1% | 14.9% | -9.6 | ✓ (16.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 66.2% | 33.8% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 81.9% | 18.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 79.9% | 20.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 79.9% | 20.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 69.2% | 30.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Washington Wizards -26 (94-120). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Herro * | 32 | 9-19 | 0-6 | 9-9 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 27 | 21 | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 30 | 11-19 | 2-5 | 4-7 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 28 | 28 | - | |
| Pelle Larsson * | 29 | 7-13 | 0-4 | 1-2 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 15 | - | |
| Kel'el Ware * | 22 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 11 | - | |
| Alec Burks * | 17 | 1-5 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | - | |
| Terry Rozier | 32 | 5-11 | 3-7 | 2-3 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 16 | - | |
| Kyle Anderson | 23 | 4-6 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 12 | - | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 23 | 6-9 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 17 | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith | 20 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | - | |
| Isaiah Stevens | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - | |
| Josh Christopher | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - | |
| Keshad Johnson | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Washington Wizards
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bub Carrington * | 38 | 3-11 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 8 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 17 | - | |
| AJ Johnson * | 36 | 3-9 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 4 | - | |
| Alex Sarr * | 30 | 3-17 | 1-7 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | - | |
| Jordan Poole * | 29 | 10-17 | 7-13 | 8-9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 35 | 27 | - | |
| Justin Champagnie * | 29 | 2-5 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 | - | |
| Tristan Vukcevic | 22 | 6-13 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 6 | - | |
| Marcus Smart | 20 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 2-4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | - | |
| Jaylen Martin | 17 | 2-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 7 | - | |
| Richaun Holmes | 15 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 13 | - |
* = starter