Model Predictions
| Model | Golden State Warriors | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 57.2% | 42.8% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 54.7% | 45.3% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 56.4% | 43.6% | -1.4 | ✗ (27.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 51.2% | 48.8% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 60.7% | 39.3% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 61.7% | 38.3% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 61.8% | 38.2% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 53.4% | 46.6% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Miami Heat +26 (112-86). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Golden State Warriors
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Podziemski * | 30 | 6-16 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Jimmy Butler III * | 28 | 5-12 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| Moses Moody * | 25 | 3-13 | 0-9 | 1-1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Draymond Green * | 23 | 1-4 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Gary Payton II * | 20 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Buddy Hield | 25 | 3-8 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Jonathan Kuminga | 24 | 4-10 | 1-3 | 6-9 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| Gui Santos | 19 | 5-8 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | - | - | |
| Kevon Looney | 14 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | - | - | |
| Quinten Post | 13 | 1-5 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Pat Spencer | 6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Kevin Knox II | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Trayce Jackson-Davis | 4 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Herro * | 35 | 7-10 | 4-4 | 2-2 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 20 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 34 | 9-18 | 2-3 | 7-9 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 27 | - | - | |
| Kel'el Ware * | 27 | 7-11 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | - | - | |
| Andrew Wiggins * | 27 | 4-13 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 10 | - | - | |
| Alec Burks * | 24 | 6-8 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 | - | - | |
| Davion Mitchell | 32 | 5-8 | 2-2 | 0-1 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith | 30 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Kyle Anderson | 20 | 3-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Pelle Larsson | 3 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter