Model Predictions
| Model | Houston Rockets | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 46.2% | 53.8% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 60.1% | 39.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 64.3% | 35.7% | -3.2 | ✓ (0.8 off) |
| Pythagorean | 52.4% | 47.6% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 63.9% | 36.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 63.9% | 36.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 64.0% | 36.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 55.4% | 44.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat -4 (98-102). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Houston Rockets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred VanVleet * | 36 | 13-17 | 9-11 | 2-4 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 37 | 26 | - | |
| Amen Thompson * | 34 | 8-14 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 18 | 26 | - | |
| Dillon Brooks * | 34 | 4-11 | 1-7 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 4 | - | |
| Alperen Sengun * | 33 | 4-15 | 0-0 | 0-4 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 9 | - | |
| Jalen Green * | 32 | 3-13 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | - | |
| Tari Eason | 27 | 2-6 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 11 | - | |
| Jabari Smith Jr. | 21 | 3-6 | 3-4 | 2-4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 11 | - | |
| Steven Adams | 20 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 12 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Herro * | 38 | 3-11 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 4 | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 37 | 6-13 | 2-4 | 2-3 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 15 | - | |
| Kel'el Ware * | 35 | 7-10 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 25 | - | |
| Andrew Wiggins * | 29 | 10-13 | 2-4 | 8-9 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 30 | 24 | - | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. * | 14 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | - | |
| Davion Mitchell | 33 | 5-10 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 10 | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith | 23 | 3-5 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 14 | - | |
| Duncan Robinson | 17 | 2-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | - | |
| Kevin Love | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | |
| Alec Burks | 3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
* = starter