Model Predictions
| Model | Detroit Pistons | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 67.4% | 32.6% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 56.2% | 43.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 56.7% | 43.3% | -1.5 | ✓ (1.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 49.5% | 50.5% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 55.1% | 44.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 55.7% | 44.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 55.7% | 44.3% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 48.5% | 51.5% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Miami Heat -3 (113-116). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Detroit Pistons
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tobias Harris * | 35 | 6-9 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 13 | - | - | |
| Cade Cunningham * | 35 | 11-25 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 12 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 25 | - | - | |
| Ausar Thompson * | 28 | 7-10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 14 | - | - | |
| Jalen Duren * | 27 | 6-9 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. * | 19 | 3-8 | 1-4 | 3-3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | - | - | |
| Malik Beasley | 28 | 5-11 | 5-10 | 1-2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16 | - | - | |
| Isaiah Stewart | 20 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Dennis Schröder | 18 | 1-8 | 0-2 | 6-6 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | - | - | |
| Simone Fontecchio | 12 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Ronald Holland II | 12 | 3-4 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | - | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo * | 37 | 12-24 | 2-5 | 4-4 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 30 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro * | 36 | 10-20 | 3-9 | 6-6 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 29 | - | - | |
| Kel'el Ware * | 32 | 7-10 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 14 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 30 | 5-10 | 3-7 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. * | 27 | 3-10 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Davion Mitchell | 31 | 5-6 | 0-1 | 2-3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith | 25 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | - | - | |
| Alec Burks | 14 | 1-4 | 1-4 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Pelle Larsson | 3 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter