Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Memphis Grizzlies | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 56.6% | 43.4% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 38.4% | 61.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 34.1% | 65.9% | +3.6 | ✓ (30.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 42.9% | 57.1% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 34.2% | 65.8% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 33.7% | 66.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 33.7% | 66.3% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 34.1% | 65.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Memphis Grizzlies +34 (125-91). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kel'el Ware * | 35 | 8-14 | 2-6 | 1-3 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 18 | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 29 | 7-15 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 12 | - | |
| Tyler Herro * | 22 | 3-12 | 1-4 | 1-1 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 8 | - | |
| Andrew Wiggins * | 21 | 3-8 | 1-5 | 1-1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 13 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | - | |
| Kyle Anderson | 29 | 5-8 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 17 | - | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 26 | 4-10 | 0-2 | 5-6 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 11 | - | |
| Terry Rozier | 26 | 2-9 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | - | |
| Davion Mitchell | 19 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | - | |
| Pelle Larsson | 14 | 2-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | - |
Memphis Grizzlies
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaren Jackson Jr. * | 32 | 13-18 | 1-4 | 4-4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 31 | 22 | - | |
| Desmond Bane * | 30 | 9-16 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 22 | 26 | - | |
| Luke Kennard * | 29 | 5-8 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 11 | - | |
| Zach Edey * | 27 | 5-9 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 14 | - | |
| Jaylen Wells * | 26 | 3-9 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 4 | - | |
| Scotty Pippen Jr. | 29 | 4-10 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 6 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 21 | - | |
| Lamar Stevens | 19 | 3-6 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 9 | - | |
| Cam Spencer | 18 | 2-5 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | - | |
| Brandon Clarke | 13 | 6-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 8 | - | |
| GG Jackson | 8 | 1-4 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 | - | |
| Marvin Bagley III | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - | |
| John Konchar | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
* = starter