Model Predictions
| Model | Indiana Pacers | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 25.2% | 74.8% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 49.4% | 50.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 39.7% | 60.3% | +2.3 | ✓ (2.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 49.9% | 50.1% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 56.4% | 43.6% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 58.6% | 41.4% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 58.7% | 41.3% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 51.4% | 48.6% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Miami Heat +5 (125-120). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Indiana Pacers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Nembhard * | 37 | 4-7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 9 | - | - | |
| Tyrese Haliburton * | 36 | 8-15 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 19 | - | - | |
| Aaron Nesmith * | 35 | 3-8 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | - | - | |
| Myles Turner * | 35 | 7-12 | 5-9 | 3-4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 22 | - | - | |
| Pascal Siakam * | 32 | 13-21 | 8-11 | 2-4 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 36 | - | - | |
| Obi Toppin | 15 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Ben Sheppard | 14 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| T.J. McConnell | 13 | 3-8 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Thomas Bryant | 12 | 4-10 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Jarace Walker | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davion Mitchell * | 36 | 3-7 | 2-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 10 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro * | 33 | 11-25 | 3-10 | 4-5 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 29 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 31 | 8-14 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 18 | - | - | |
| Kel'el Ware * | 28 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. * | 14 | 4-4 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith | 29 | 4-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson | 28 | 8-10 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 20 | - | - | |
| Alec Burks | 20 | 5-9 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13 | - | - | |
| Terry Rozier | 11 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Kyle Anderson | 6 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - |
* = starter