Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Toronto Raptors | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 34.8% | 65.2% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 44.9% | 55.1% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 53.3% | 46.7% | -0.7 | ✓ (8.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 52.4% | 47.6% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 59.7% | 40.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 59.4% | 40.6% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 59.4% | 40.6% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 52.2% | 47.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Toronto Raptors -9 (111-120). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Wiggins * | 42 | 9-19 | 2-6 | 5-6 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 25 | 17 | - | |
| Tyler Herro * | 40 | 10-18 | 4-9 | 4-4 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 28 | 21 | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 37 | 8-13 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 19 | - | |
| Davion Mitchell * | 33 | 6-9 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 11 | - | |
| Kel'el Ware * | 20 | 2-7 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | - | |
| Nikola Jović | 34 | 3-7 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 13 | - | |
| Duncan Robinson | 23 | 5-9 | 2-6 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 9 | - | |
| Terry Rozier | 15 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | - | |
| Kyle Anderson | 10 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - | |
| Alec Burks | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
Toronto Raptors
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RJ Barrett * | 38 | 11-17 | 4-6 | 3-4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 29 | 21 | - | |
| Scottie Barnes * | 37 | 4-12 | 1-5 | 4-4 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 11 | - | |
| Immanuel Quickley * | 37 | 8-21 | 5-11 | 2-3 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 13 | - | |
| Gradey Dick * | 34 | 2-7 | 2-5 | 3-4 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 16 | - | |
| Orlando Robinson * | 30 | 4-8 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 10 | - | |
| Jonathan Mogbo | 18 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | - | |
| Ochai Agbaji | 17 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | - | |
| Ja'Kobe Walter | 17 | 3-5 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 7 | - | |
| Jamal Shead | 17 | 3-8 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 9 | - | |
| Chris Boucher | 14 | 0-5 | 0-3 | 4-4 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | - |
* = starter