Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Dallas Mavericks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 40.6% | 59.4% | - | β |
| Bradley-Terry | 43.0% | 57.0% | - | β |
| Margin | 46.9% | 53.1% | +0.7 | β (4.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 47.9% | 52.1% | - | β |
| Efficiency | 49.8% | 50.2% | - | β |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 46.7% | 53.3% | - | β |
| Log Adjusted | 46.7% | 53.3% | - | β |
| Points Off/Def | 43.4% | 56.6% | - | β |
Actual: Dallas Mavericks +5 (118-113). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davion Mitchell * | 37 | 1-4 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 | - | |
| Tyler Herro * | 37 | 15-30 | 3-14 | 7-9 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 40 | 24 | - | |
| Kel'el Ware * | 32 | 8-14 | 0-3 | 1-2 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 15 | - | |
| Kyle Anderson * | 27 | 6-10 | 0-0 | 3-6 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 20 | - | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. * | 22 | 3-7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 10 | - | |
| Alec Burks | 28 | 3-7 | 2-5 | 4-7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 17 | - | |
| Nikola JoviΔ | 24 | 3-11 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -3 | - | |
| Duncan Robinson | 19 | 3-7 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 7 | - | |
| Pelle Larsson | 9 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - |
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kessler Edwards * | 39 | 6-12 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 15 | - | |
| Max Christie * | 38 | 8-19 | 3-11 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 19 | 14 | - | |
| Spencer Dinwiddie * | 35 | 6-13 | 1-7 | 5-5 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 14 | - | |
| DantΓ© Exum * | 24 | 11-13 | 2-2 | 3-3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 27 | 24 | - | |
| Olivier-Maxence Prosper * | 22 | 5-9 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 5 | - | |
| Naji Marshall | 32 | 4-7 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 19 | - | |
| Brandon Williams | 24 | 4-7 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 8 | - | |
| Jaden Hardy | 18 | 0-8 | 0-4 | 2-4 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - | |
| Kylor Kelley | 2 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | - |
* = starter